So many good points here, and I like your idea about building more processing centers at the border and streamlining applications. But I also wonder if at this stage, in late 2023, Biden has to do something even bolder and with a quicker payoff, given the electoral liabilities that immigration poses for his re-election.
Basically, I'd tell him to sign a bill that appropriates money for border fencing (not a wall), and take credit for it. It'll obviously infuriate Dems, but for the voters who will be decisive in 2024, that's kind of a selling point! Standing up to one's party tends to play well with the independent crowd, right?
"... it’s not great that Biden and Trump are tied in the polls a year out from the 2024 election!"
Absolutely the correct bottom line and this piece does a great job explaining all the reasons why. And there are a few more things that could be said about this:
1. Based on state-level leans from 2020, a tied national environment would be a smashing victory for the GOP. Trump would easily get >300 EVs along with probably 55-60 Senate seats. That's a Social Security privatizing, six-week national abortion banning kind of majority.
2. We can probably expect Trump to do about 5 points better than public polling suggests, because lots of low-trust social conservatives who don't respond to polls do show up for Trump. So the national environment right now could be as bad as ~R+5.
We're just wildly delusional if we don't see Trump as a heavy favorite as things currently stand. And I'm getting frustrated that Dems don't seem to be acting like a party with our backs to the wall facing the possibility of an absolute blowout. We need to get serious quickly about addressing our weaknesses on culture war issues like immigration, and keeping up our margins among blue-collar voters. Because otherwise all the things we care about will be crushed under the iron heel of MAGA.
What do you make of Vivek Ramaswamy. I find it odd that as an open, out and proud Hindu he's pandering to the Christian right.
So many good points here, and I like your idea about building more processing centers at the border and streamlining applications. But I also wonder if at this stage, in late 2023, Biden has to do something even bolder and with a quicker payoff, given the electoral liabilities that immigration poses for his re-election.
Basically, I'd tell him to sign a bill that appropriates money for border fencing (not a wall), and take credit for it. It'll obviously infuriate Dems, but for the voters who will be decisive in 2024, that's kind of a selling point! Standing up to one's party tends to play well with the independent crowd, right?
"... it’s not great that Biden and Trump are tied in the polls a year out from the 2024 election!"
Absolutely the correct bottom line and this piece does a great job explaining all the reasons why. And there are a few more things that could be said about this:
1. Based on state-level leans from 2020, a tied national environment would be a smashing victory for the GOP. Trump would easily get >300 EVs along with probably 55-60 Senate seats. That's a Social Security privatizing, six-week national abortion banning kind of majority.
2. We can probably expect Trump to do about 5 points better than public polling suggests, because lots of low-trust social conservatives who don't respond to polls do show up for Trump. So the national environment right now could be as bad as ~R+5.
We're just wildly delusional if we don't see Trump as a heavy favorite as things currently stand. And I'm getting frustrated that Dems don't seem to be acting like a party with our backs to the wall facing the possibility of an absolute blowout. We need to get serious quickly about addressing our weaknesses on culture war issues like immigration, and keeping up our margins among blue-collar voters. Because otherwise all the things we care about will be crushed under the iron heel of MAGA.