Really good points! #9 definitely has a lot of truth to it. Reminds me of some lessons from the Affordable Care Act which was in many ways the defining political battle of my lifetime. The work of expanding our social insurance system requires careful rhetorical framing that emphasizes giving hardworking people a hand up when they need it, and Obama did this very well. It also takes pragmatism - you pass what you can rather than holding out for too much. Then once a new social program takes root, people tend to like it and don't want to lose it, and further improvements become possible. This story has played our with everything from the original Social Security to the ACA.
On #8, it is definitely true that the current Dem coalition is more upscale compared to 2012 because of educational polarization (and this is mostly to our geographic disadvantage). But it's still true that, among basically every demographic group, people vote more Republican the more money they make - Trump only won outright in 2020 among voters making >$100k per year. I suspect that Democratic support for expanded social programs will hold up over time. Middle-incomr to high-income people can support them and even value them as a form of insurance, and it's still the case that the difference between the two major parties in the USA on welfare-state issues is bigger than any of our peer nations. You're definitely right that much more ambitious social program expansions like a big permanent CTC would require broader-based tax increases. Guess we'll see how it goes!
Really good points! #9 definitely has a lot of truth to it. Reminds me of some lessons from the Affordable Care Act which was in many ways the defining political battle of my lifetime. The work of expanding our social insurance system requires careful rhetorical framing that emphasizes giving hardworking people a hand up when they need it, and Obama did this very well. It also takes pragmatism - you pass what you can rather than holding out for too much. Then once a new social program takes root, people tend to like it and don't want to lose it, and further improvements become possible. This story has played our with everything from the original Social Security to the ACA.
On #8, it is definitely true that the current Dem coalition is more upscale compared to 2012 because of educational polarization (and this is mostly to our geographic disadvantage). But it's still true that, among basically every demographic group, people vote more Republican the more money they make - Trump only won outright in 2020 among voters making >$100k per year. I suspect that Democratic support for expanded social programs will hold up over time. Middle-incomr to high-income people can support them and even value them as a form of insurance, and it's still the case that the difference between the two major parties in the USA on welfare-state issues is bigger than any of our peer nations. You're definitely right that much more ambitious social program expansions like a big permanent CTC would require broader-based tax increases. Guess we'll see how it goes!