First of all, big picture!!
I am so proud of the Democratic party because DEMOCRATS KEPT THE SENATE!!!!! Maggie Hassan, Mark Kelly, and Catherine Cortez-Masto all won their races, and John Fetterman won the open Pennsylvania Senate seat, so even without the Georgia runoff race between incumbent Democratic senator Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker (which I personally think Warnock is favored in and Dems should absolutely work to win given the nature of the 2024 Senate map!!!), Democrats have the Senate majority!!! Here come the latest batch of 30-something liberal federal judges with lifetime appointments!!
Democrats also kept our losses in the House of Representatives to a minimum thanks in part to Tim Ryan and Cheri Beasley who dragged House Dems over even while losing (and despite NY Dems performances cough cough), even flipping seats in Trump-won districts like WA-03 and AK-AL! Even Lauren Boebert almost lost her race in CO-03! The Republicans took the House but it’s just truly astounding that even with skyrocketing inflation and New York Dems dropping the ball and California Dems not picking up a single seat, the best the GOP could do is a 219-216 House majority. I sort of doubt Kevin McCarthy will get the votes to be Speaker and even if he somehow is, the House GOP is going to be such a clown car with all its silly little Hunter Biden investigations that it’ll be easy for Democrats to take back the House in 2024 regardless of what happens to the Senate.
On the state level, all incumbent Democratic governors except Steve Sisolak in Nevada won re-election, Democrats picked up the Maryland, Massachusetts, and Arizona gubernatorial mansions with Wes Moore, Maura Healey, and Katie Hobbs respectively. Gretchen Whitmer won by double digits in Michigan and on her coattails, Michigan Democrats flipped the State House and Senate; Josh Shapiro won a landslide victory in Pennsylvania and PA Democrats flipped the State House by just a handful of votes; incumbent Governor Tony Evers in Wisconsin (who I thought was a goner!!) won a second term, and the 2023 WI State Supreme Court fight will be imperative; and, North Carolina Democrats prevented Republicans from getting a veto-proof majority in the state legislature, so abortion will remain safe and legal in NC due to Democratic governor Roy Cooper’s veto being preserved. Who’d have thought? Voting harder DOES work.
Anyways, some other bit notes:
I think Stacey Abrams is a much weaker candidate than an organizer, and given that she underperformed Raphael Warnock by almost 150k, it's also evident that a stronger candidate would have allowed Warnock to get over 50% and avoid a runoff, even if Brian Kemp was unbeatable due to his incumbency and perceived moderation. Abrams’ idea of base turnout fell massively short since the Democratic base simply isn’t big enough to ensure victory in states that aren’t deep blue, and statewide candidates need to appeal to moderate/swing voters, which is what Raphael Warnock is doing, running ads during football games featuring voters who “proudly voted for Brian Kemp” but are also voting for him over Herschel Walker.
I was wrong that Mandela Barnes would be a disastrous candidate in Wisconsin! He only lost to incumbent Republican senator Ron Johnson by 1%, and Democratic Governor Tony Evers won by 3.5%, and Wisconsin Democrats held the fort. Milwaukee Public Schools (which the Wisconsin GOP attempted to disband??) lives to see another day!
Senator Gary Peters (D-MI), who ran the DSCC, and Governor Roy Cooper (D-NC), who ran the DGA, are both the real GOATs. Peters saved the Senate for Democrats with a Democrat in the White House, and if we win that Georgia runoff (which doesn’t look unlikely given that Brian Kemp isn’t campaigning for Herschel Walker and Walker is going on about vampires), Democrats will have gained a seat, just like Republicans did in 2018! Meanwhile, Roy Cooper only lost 1 incumbent Democratic governor (Steve Sisolak in Nevada), saved Governor Evers in Wisconsin (who I thought was a goner) and Laura Kelly in deep-red Kansas, and picked up 3 governors’ mansions, Massachusetts with Maura Healey, Maryland with Wes Moore, and Arizona with Katie Hobbs. Just two impeccable gentlemen who deserve all the praise.
Ron DeSantis winning by over 20% is just embarrassing like Florida Dems obviously have an uphill battle but the entire Democratic party really dropped the ball on the third largest state in the country. Texas is a white whale for Democrats and if Democrats aren’t competitive statewide in 2/3 of the most populous states (Texas, Florida, and California), it doesn’t reflect well on the party at large.
Holistically speaking, I think it’s worth noting that extremism in terms of both social conservatism and being anti-democratic doesn’t sell to the vast majority of Americans. Voters consciously split their tickets and ensured that election-denying Secretary of State nominees were steamrolled at the ballot box to the extent they outran the top of the ticket in many states! In Arizona, Katie Hobbs’ ad commemorating her victory over TV anchor and election-denying Kari Lake (who my dad described as “rude with a horrible demeanor”) proclaimed “Sanity over chaos,” and she’s right.
Looking forward, the 2024 Senate map is a bloodbath for Democrats so in my opinion, the DSCC should just play defense on the seats we currently hold and not spend money targeting Florida or Texas, which are just simply out of reach for Democrats right now. The DSCC should focus on protecting Brown/Tester/Manchin in Ohio/Montana/West Virginia as well as Baldwin/Casey/Stabenow/Sinema in Wisconsin/Pennsylvania/Michigan/Arizona as well since especially is Harris is the nominee, there’s no guarantee she wins those latter states either although I think Biden wins WI/PA/MI/AZ and carries those Dem Senators over as well since there’s little to no ticket splitting of late.
Anyways, C.J. Cregg was right, and I’m so glad we (sort of) did it.