A Post About Politics To Explain Why I'm Not Posting About Politics
It's 5 months until the 2024 Election, President Joe Biden is (probably) behind, and people are melting down
I’m not remotely famous and I don’t politick for a living so I have no real reason to make this declaration but I’m more likely to abide by it if I say it publicly: I’ve decided to step back from any and all politics posting for the summer. I’m not punishing myself if I feel inclined but I’m making the conscious effort to stay away from polls and crosstabs and speeches and this is why: My brain isn’t working well right now and I’d rather not get screamed at over toplines and crosstabs and salience for the next few months until I get my brain in order. I’m not punishing myself if I happen to say something political and I’ll probably engage here and there with politics 1-1 but I just don’t want to get into public arguments over things I can’t control.
I need to prioritize my health, and being screamed at for making anodyne statements is not conducive to good mental health. I can’t stop people from screaming at my takes but I can stop posting them in the first place.
But, a few points before I go on political hiatus so to speak:
Regarding the campus protests against Israel’s actions in Gaza, I tend to agree with Zadie Smith
That said, I feel like if you think that right-wingers (or like, Jonathan Chait) should be socially ostracized if not materially punished for things they say and do that aren’t physically hurting others, you can’t turn around and say that people who aren’t American citizens chanting “Death to America” are good faith actors who are exercising their freedom of speech.
Something that’s been bugging me over the last few months is that nobody on the left admits that the bulk of Biden’s polling woes aren’t with staunch progressives, they’re with moderates and Independents. Look at it like this: If we’re talking about Biden’s low approvals, we can make the argument that people on the Left are stating their disapproval of Biden for [insert issue], but none of the people who are mad at Biden for not being progressive enough are ever going to tell a pollster they’re voting for Trump so Biden trailing in every head-to-head poll with Trump is a five-alarm fire (and no, insisting the polls are wrong doesn’t fix this issue). The reality is that while Biden is roughly tied nationally, he’s trailing in every swing state poll over the last several months, and if things don’t turn around soon, we’re in the bad place.
That said, I think progressive dissatisfaction could absolutely cause Biden to lose not because progressives will vote for Trump over Gaza (they won’t) but because the bulk of Get Out The Vote (GOTV) that happens every fall is done by 3 groups: Black women over 50, white women over 50, and people under 30. If one of those groups isn’t motivated to volunteer and does the bare minimum of checking the box next to Biden, the campaign could absolutely be negatively impacted. But if progressives think lightning will strike twice and that Democrats will go left if Biden loses like they did after Hillary lost, they won’t.
Of course, I think it’s underestimated just how high-salience abortion is for voters because it’s literally the only issue that Democrats hold an advantage on. Look at this latest poll from the Wall Street Journal. Biden’s trailing Trump in 5/6 of the primary swing states (and is tied in Wisconsin) but is substantially behind on most issue polls with the exception of abortion.
This excerpt by Matt Yglesias is on point:
“The result is an asymmetrical impact on the political system: The paper’s [New York Times] tough coverage of Biden hurts him badly with both readers who are more moderate than Biden and also readers who are to the left of Biden, while right-of-center readers dismiss coverage of their side as hopelessly biased. So even though I appreciated Kahn’s mantra that “the newsroom is not a safe space,” I think we’re still left with a mainstream media that is both too detached from the actual stakes of American politics and also too out of touch with the cultural mores of the typical American.”
This interview was NOT good and I can’t stand Isaac Chotiner. Like, welp.
Like I understand that the Biden campaign is in trouble but saying things like this isn’t the answer: “The campaign believes that the large bloc of disenchanted and disengaged voters means the race won’t be decided until even later than usual.”
The polls, especially the toplines, were mostly right in 2022 and likely aren’t entirely wrong today
This isn’t 100% the media’s fault even if the media holds some of the blame
Voters are mad about prices and interest rates
Voters think Biden is too liberal and too old
Voters forgot how bad Trump is
On the Romney Democrat:
The annoying thing about a second Trump presidency, assuming it comes to pass, is that all of these constituencies angry at Biden within a month of Trump being president will remember why they hated him because this time, he'll have no need to adhere to the norms of the executive office.
Beyond Project 2025, many the basic functions of government that people assume are innate, will also be worse, because they'll be ran by incompetent sycophants who only care about posturing. But oh well, it's what they picked so I guess people will just have to live with it.